Delighted New Year financiers and friends! What a remarkable brand-new year it is most likely to be. Like a bolder dropped in a pond, the infection produced a big implosion of corporate development in 2020 and an unprecedented surge of development in 2021. Extending the ripple-in-a-pond metaphor we may expect that these waves will reduce in magnitude and after that settle. When and how rough will the waves be in 2022? And which sector( s) will potentially be causing it.
After A Tough Year, Odey Asset Management Finishes 2021 On A HighFor much of the past years, Crispin Odey has been awaiting inflation to rear its awful head. The fund manager has been positioned to take advantage of rising rates in his flagship hedge fund, the Odey European Fund, and has actually been trying to alert his financiers about the threats of inflation through his yearly Read MoreHistorically Negative Combination
Complicating things is a surge in inflation that is likely to continue through these waves as decades of simple money policy, of lower labor share of wealth/income and now the international disturbances associated with the infection will push costs up. That implies that we will require to handle through a period of lower growth and greater inflation. Historically that is a very unfavorable combination for property prices.
The peak of the first wave appeared in the 3rd quarter financial statements database update that was simply completed. The frequency of rising sales development and increasing gross revenue margins was lower in the period and it is those frequency numbers that normally mark the growth peak.
Rising Inflation And Interest Rates
The only way to defend our possessions from the negative affect of increasing inflation and interest rates is to own accelerating business. Only increasing growth will supply defense against rising rates of interest. The rebound from the infection depressed levels in 2015 has most business recording acceleration qualities.
Just recently, the most significant rebound was the energy group where sales growth dropped to -50% (at the most infection depressed period) but has actually since recovered to 44% in the recent upgrade; with a massive 88% of energy business achieving an improvement.
Oil & & Gas Cycles
There are several cycles in our data record however in a normal oil and gas cycle we would begin to see an acceleration in capital expenditures as companies respond to greater oil prices with bigger expedition and development spending. Successfully implemented brand-new projects would change fading production in other places and contribute to supply development.
Current proof recommends the opposite is happening in the oil and gas market. Capital expenditures continue to fall relative to sales. Oil costs continue to advance, production is fading but not being replaced and supply growth is slowing.
Energy Demand Continues To Grow
The world is not happy to minimize energy usage. There is incredible resistance to greater oil prices and lower fuel-cost aids as we have seen in social unrest duplicated recently. Newest example in Kazakhstan.
Econ 101
From fundamental economic theory, we understand that the only method to reduce nonrenewable fuel source use is through higher prices. Higher energy costs and carbon taxes will sustain high inflation. The recent boost has lifted determined inflation by the fastest rate (7%) and to the greatest level because 1979 The current yield on long term bonds is 2% producing an after inflation (real) negative return of -5%!
Back In 1979.
The last time (1979) inflation was acting in this trend, long treasury bonds yielded 12% for a real return of 5%. If Bond yields were to increase to 12% now, the cost of long treasury bonds would fall by over 80%. This is an upcoming retirement disaster.
Terribly important to senior citizens, please evaluate your pension now and offer all set earnings securities. The only way to defend our assets from the unfavorable affect of rising inflation and interest rates is to own accelerating companies. Only rising development will supply defense versus rising rates of interest. The rebound from the virus depressed levels in 2015 has most business taping acceleration qualities.
Otos MoneyTree
Otos displays rising sales growth and increasing earnings margins as a MoneyTree with a green world, a dark trunk, and a golden pot. As business report their monetary declarations in coming weeks, be meticulous around the growth characteristics of your portfolio business.
Whatever Quantitative Tools you pick to use, your portfolio of business need to have rising growth qualities (MoneyTree with a green world, dark trunk and hourglass shaped golden pot).
The present Otos Total Market Index portfolio MoneyTree listed below has high and increasing sales development, rising earnings margins and high operating/financial take advantage of.
Select Active Portfolio Management and verify that your portfolio qualities are, basically, growing!
SEC Filings Of Annual Reports
This is the last upgrade of the 3rd quarter financial statement upgrade with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) however soon updates from the 4th quarter year-end duration will start. The majority of business will quickly to be reporting their annual duration ended December. The reporting due date for yearly monetary declarations is later so it will be early March prior to we see a complete macro picture (stay tuned).
All the very best in 2022 and make sure!
Updated on Jan 17, 2022, 3:53 pm
Like a bolder dropped in a pond, the virus produced a big implosion of corporate growth in 2020 and an unmatched explosion of growth in 2021. That means that we will require to handle through a period of lower growth and higher inflation. Just rising growth will provide defense against rising interest rates. Oil prices continue to advance, production is fading but not being changed and supply growth is slowing.
Just increasing growth will supply defense versus increasing interest rates.
